The Harris County Wipeout

The 2018 Midterm Elections brought the obliteration of nearly all of the Harris County Republican candidates running for re-election. Gone are County Judge Ed Emmett, County Clerk Stan Stanart, County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez, District Clerk Chris Daniel, and a very long list of judges. The only conservative left standing this election is Commissioner Jack Cagle. While straight-ticket voting was pointed to as the culprit for the R wipeout, the numbers prove that's simply not the case. What caused the wipeout of the Republicans is simple: Democrats turned out the vote and the Republicans didn't. 

As a follow up to the election results Judge Emmett tweeted, "Keeping the straight ticket option for 1 more election cycle turned out to be a disaster for all Republicans. With the long ballot, more than 75% of voters chose to vote straight ticket, and the Democrats outvoted Republicans by more than 100K." And that is the telling part of the story. Turnout matters.

And turnout there was. According to Evan Siegfreid, nationally, "115 million Americans — a 32 percent increase from the 2014 midterm election, voted in the 2018 midterm elections. This turnout rate of 49 percent of eligible voters is the highest since 1914 and the largest since the 1920 ratification of the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.

Young voters (18-29), saw a 56 percent surge over 2014 turnout, which is the highest increase in turnout among any age group. While only 31 percent of eligible younger voters showed up to the polls, this is an increase of several million voters and was to the benefit of Democrats."

Seigfreid also noted a few significant demographic shifts in this election. 

• Women voters went from D+4 in 2014 to D+19 in 2018
• Young voters were D+11 in 2014 to D+35 in 2018
• Voters 65 and older broke R+16 in 2014, but shifted toward Dems and were R+2 in 2018

In Harris County, we saw over one million voters turn out for the first time ever in a midterm election. Pretty impressive. So, what does the Democrat sweep of Harris County mean? Not much really, unless you are a contractor vying for county contracts. Or, you count that we will have 27-year-old graduate student Lina Hildalgo running the third largest county in the country. Not saying she won't be up to the task, but think forward to what we will need during the next natural disaster here. We certainly hope she will be capable of leading 5 million people out of harm's way when the time comes. 

Pundits seem to agree the much-anticipated wave of either color did not materialize in this election. At the State level, Republicans swept every statewide office for the 20th year in a row and maintained dominant majorities in both houses of the state Legislature as well as the Texas delegation to the U.S. Congress. The most publicized contest between El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke and incumbent Senator Ted Cruz turned out to be closer than predicted, but Cruz came away with the win despite millions in outside money, celebrity endorsements. and a national media who fawned over O'Rourke. O'Rourke did not prevail largely due to the demographics of (rural) Texas, folks who dislike the things he represents: outside influence and progressive identity politics. Look for him to be back in 2020.

Suffice to say, in a midterm expected to rebuke a GOP-dominated federal government and a controversial occupant of the White House, Texas Democrats hoped for historic victories which did not come to fruition. Losing the U.S. House was an expected setback. However, the average President loses 37 seats in his first midterm: Obama lost 63, Clinton lost 53, and President Trump lost only 26 while advancing Republican seats in the Senate. A historic achievement which would indicate that the Trump movement is still strong and building momentum towards the 2020 election (which kicked off on November 7th). #tb